Vance flunked, while Hegseth passed the presidential entrance exam.
Judicious military strikes yield positive outcomes.
The nation owes Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg (and potentially CIA saboteurs) a debt for leaking the Signal group chat that occurred before the March 15 strike on Houthi targets. Adding to the intrigue was that hackers have acquired the passwords and phone numbers of chat participants, as they have done for all the rest of us. A glaring deficiency in administration security protocols has been exposed. VP Vance opposed the attack, concerned an assault might spike oil prices and would mostly benefit European shipping:
“I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc. …If you think we should do it let's go. I just hate bailing Europe out again.” 8:46 AM
Five hours later missiles launched. Intermittent terrorism, including Houthi attacks, has increased oil’s cost for over half-a-century. Eliminating Houthi threats only reduces global oil and shipping costs. Whether Europe benefits from eliminating the Houthi threat isn’t the issue. It’s the number of attacks that have occurred on U.S. vessels and the consequences of allowing this global free trade menace to fester.
The Abbey Gate lesson is that American retreat soon leads to genocide. Anyone who thinks our homeland can avoid repercussions from retreat is dreaming. Hegseth gets it:
Mike [Waltz] is correct, we are the only ones on the planet …who can do this. Nobody else even close. Question is timing. I feel like now is as good a time as any, given POTUS directive to reopen shipping lanes. I think we should go; but POTUS still retains 24 hours of decision space. 8:49 AM
Trump's larger focus is Iran. Without Iranian and Qatari funding, Houthis wouldn’t exist. Attacking Houthis attacks Iran by proxy. Emboldened by Abbey Gate, Iran’s Hamas forces attacked Israel on October 7 after our Afghan exit. The following day Hez b’Allah piled on, then Houthi attacks on Israel began on the 19th. All coordinated from Tehran.
Democrats and RINOs (same thing) desperately seek to elevate the Signal chat nothingburger into Watergate. Vance’s hesitancy, his (in Goldberg’s words) “quasi-isolationism,” raises concerns regarding presidential fitness. The Wall Street Journal editorialized: “National-security adviser Mike Waltz was a voice for U.S. leadership — and for carrying out the President’s policy. Vice President JD Vance was a voice for U.S. retreat even when Mr. Trump directed otherwise.” Key words: “U.S. leadership.” Lacking under Biden, back under Trump. Absent U.S. leadership, a global fist fight develops. Journal editors concluded: “The President’s policy carried the day. Mr. Trump now knows which of his deputies tried to block it and which tried to carry it out.”
Let’s review. Iran and their Houthi understudies share the same objectives, made explicit on the Houthi flag: "Allah is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam." On March 12, prefacing the attack three days later, Trump messaged Iran via the United Arab Emirates, giving the terror puppeteer “a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal or face military action.” The Houthi strike was intended as punctuation at the end of that message. The period preceding May 12 should prove interesting.
On March 17, Trump upped the volume further, warning Iran it would “suffer the consequences” if Houthi belligerence resumes. This helps prepare the diplomatic battlespace prior to a negotiated Iran deal. For now, Houthis are the designated punching bag, with CENTCOM pre-authorized to unleash. Israel is tasked with participating in Trump’s good cop/bad cop routine to dissolve Iranian resistance to demilitarization. Or rather, a bad cop/worse cop routine.
The Signal incident offers insights into internal administration dynamics. If Trump unleashed his Iranian campaign on March 12, why were deputies debating whether to proceed on March 15, hours prior to launch? Could he have been testing individual members of his new team? With Stephen Miller tasked with monitoring? At 9:35 AM Miller jumped into the chat to foreclose debate:
As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement. EG, if Europe doesn't remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.
After burning through numerous national security staffers in his first administration, Trump must ascertain the loyalty and strategic acumen of his current team. Miller, the only one proximate to Trump during the group chat, could have been sitting next to Trump when he ended the discussion. For all we know Trump may have monitored the chat as it unfolded to test his deputies. His leadership style uses his Apprentice model of allowing his staff to fight it out among themselves.
Trump plays the long game, extending out decades. Identification of his successor is at the top of his list; the final Apprentice episode. Those unwilling to accept the mantle of global leadership must be eliminated. The gift of the Biden administration was that it underscored how thoroughly and quickly global order collapses in the absence of American leadership. We came to the brink of WWIII. Reminder: under Obama North Korea was leading the world down the path toward trouble.
Issac Schorr notes “Vance is merely the highest profile of an entire cohort of misguided foreign policy minds populating the second Trump administration.” Which isn’t a concern with Trump in charge. Some staffers serve to assist Trump’s Deep State dismantling, not to set policy. Some, such as envoy Steve Witkoff, may serve because of his affability, an ability to soften up some of the world’s most ruthless tyrants prior to Trump closing deals to knock off belligerence. Witkoff seems incapable of saying anything negative about anyone, a consummate diplomat. Trump proposes Russia and China join us in slashing military expenditures in half. That’s the objective. Don’t bet against him.
Trump decides who to threaten, who to attack as a warning to others, who to embrace. America, Britain, et al. have been at war with the Houthis since January 2024, joining Israel and Saudi Arabia. Unlike Trump, Biden targeted hard assets, rather than leaders. That just changed. “Their top missile guy” is history. Trump’s Tehran audience is receiving a message.
It’s concerning that Vance understands Trump is attempting to send a message with the Houthi strike but doesn’t appear to understand that it is part of a sequence of events leading to the May 12 deadline Iran was given. Trump gave Hamas a deadline to release hostages and promised hell would be visited on them if the deadline wasn’t honored. That deadline turned out to be somewhat flexible, and Hamas didn’t follow through, so now Israel is back making their lives miserable. If this chat had occurred days earlier, before Trump sent a FAFO letter to Iran, Vance’s comments could have been interpreted as brainstorming various options. But the initiative to bring Iran to the table was already underway.
Vance also doesn’t appear to grasp the long history of Islamic extortionate piracy in that region. This began during the Revolution when American shipping to European customers came under attack after we were no longer British colonies. Britain had been paying tribute to the Barbary pirates to protect its vessels from attack. Once the Revolution began, and American shipping fell outside the British umbrella, it was game on against American shipping firms desperate for revenue. Before the Constitution went into effect a treaty was negotiated to pay tribute but by the time Jefferson was in office he eventually determined that ever increasing costs made it necessary to send the Navy to the shores of Tripoli and beat the snot out of them. Paying hostage takers never works because they always want more. Thus began the first of America’s foreign wars. After two Barbary wars the matter was resolved after the bad guys were smoked. The final one only lasted three days.
Those wars produced one of America’s great heroes, Commodore Stephen Decatur, famed for his bravery and victories. Decatur eventually settled in Washington and built a townhouse next door to the White House. It has since been incorporated into the White House grounds. He was on the short list of those considered presidential candidates. The Marines memorialize him in their hymn: to the shores of Tripoli. He got killed in a stupid duel. His funeral was attended by President Monroe, the Supreme Court justices, most of Congress, and over 10,000 Americans. Congress voted to give his widow a lifetime pension.
The current cost to global shipping from Houthi attacks is profound. Not only must ships either have to pay tribute or go around the Cape of Good Hope, but insurance rates have soared. Costs have doubled. Egypt lost over $7 billion in Suez Canal revenue in 2024 alone. The extra fuel required to go around Africa amounts to a global tax on oil. America has a global empire to oversee and without free trade it collapses. If the Houthis are allowed to get away with this it is only a matter of time before other rogue nations adopt the same business model.
Trump excels at charm offenses. First Don Jr. visited Greenland. Now the Second Lady is stopping in, with Vance recently added to the delegation. Greenlanders love the attention, the most exciting thing to happen there since Vikings sailed off. The media is melting down, boding well.
● Reuters: “Greenland leaders lambast US delegation trip as Trump talks of takeover.”
● AP: “Second lady Usha Vance will visit Greenland as Trump talks up US takeover.” “Greenland’s leader laments ‘mess’ as US vice president’s wife to visit island coveted by Trump.”
● 10News.com: “Second Lady Usha Vance among US delegation to visit Greenland amid Trump takeover comments.”
● CNN: “Greenland’s prime minister slams ‘highly aggressive’ visit by US officials, including second lady Usha Vance.”
● New York Times: “Greenland Officials Express Fury Over Trump’s Plan to Send Delegation.”
The media’s daily narrative memo must have included instructions to use “takeover” to characterize diplomacy. Media heads will explode if Trump obtains an agreement, short of ownership but long on financial incentives; incorporating access to minerals and adding to our military presence.
Why did Trump wait until the Ides of March, almost seven weeks after inauguration, to attack Houthi targets? More pressing concerns preoccupied him. Trump 47 had three immediate foreign policy priorities: Ukraine, Gaza, Iran. Making progress on the others, Iran moves to the front burner.