BOTTOM LINE: If current Trump campaign internal polling holds, he likely ends up with at least 313 Electoral College votes to Kamala’s 225.
Politico explains why Trump’s internal polling shows the Kennedy alliance is such a Big Deal:
In a memo sent to reporters on Friday, Tony Fabrizio, the lead pollster for the Trump campaign, called Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement “good news” for Trump and his campaign. He said the campaign’s data showed voters in most battleground states who chose Kennedy on the ballot test were significantly more likely to pick Trump when the choices were narrowed down to just the two major-party candidates.
In the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the 5 percent of respondents who picked Kennedy on the ballot test that included all five candidates broke 44 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Harris when they were given only the two major-party candidates as options. About 3 in 10 were undecided.
It was more of a split decision in the four “Sun Belt” states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Kennedy earned 4 percent in the average of those four state polls, with roughly equal shares of voters choosing Trump (38 percent) or Harris (36 percent) on the two-candidate ballot test, with 27 percent undecided.
The data speaks for itself. The table below is from our most recent round of battleground state surveys. As you can clearly see, in every single state RFK Jr.’s vote breaks for President Trump.
To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes, nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes, nearly twice Biden’s margin.
Except for Michigan, these states are nowhere near being within the margin of error. These sorts of polls free up Trump’s time and money to focus on flipping additional states.
Democratic and media spin to the contrary, this election is shaping up as an overwhelming Trump victory. Domestic and international developments can only work against Harris and her creepy running mate in coming weeks. Walz has so many negatives that he must join Kamala in hiding from the press for the remainder of the campaign. Harris must survive her September 10 debate and Walz will be next on October 1. Walz has immediately been revealed to be the gift which keeps on giving to Republicans. Your lying eyes can easily see that boy isn’t right.
The accompanying table provides a breakdown by states. Due to the 2020 census, five states gained an Electoral College vote since the previous presidential election, Texas acquired two votes, and seven states lost one. Assuming the two parties split the state votes the same as 2020, with the exception of the seven Fabrizio memo states shifting to Trump, he finishes with 313 Electoral College votes.
In the table below, the Fabrizio states pegged to be flipped by Trump are shaded yellow. States which lost an Electoral College vote since 2020 have their vote total in orange, those which gained are in green. At the far right column, Biden’s 2020 victory margin is in red font. The vote count for the three states which Trump has a chance to flip are highlighted in blue.
Pay attention to the slim victory margin Biden managed to obtain in battleground states, often by fraud. Voting rules have tightened since 2020, including in two states with Republican governors which Biden “won,” Virginia and Georgia. Biden’s victory margin in Virginia was 10.1%. While considerably higher than the Farbrizio states, this could likely be flipped by Trump this year considering the chaos of the Biden administration combined with Democrats’ radical ticket. A decrepit Biden hiding in his basement in 2020 was far more electable than Harris or Walz cowering from the press.
Trump has been holding rallies in the battleground states, but also in some which have previously been considered unassailable, including New York, New Jersey, and Virginia. Those three possess an additional 55 Electoral College votes and could bring his total to 368. Unless his polling already suggested strong odds in those states, he would not be spending time and money holding rallies there
Yet another reason to vote for Trump.
.Even before Kamala’s coronation, her disastrous radical VP selection, and RFK Jr.’s defection, Democrats were already in serious trouble as of July 20:
What no one is paying much attention to is the likelihood of a powerful GOP congressional realignment taking place this year. West Virginia Senator Manchin is toast. Governor Jim Justice leads by a landslide margin. The rules have been changed, especially in Georgia and Pennsylvania, to make cheating much more difficult. The RNC has especially gotten its ground game together in Pennsylvania (tied with New York for fifth among the states for Electoral College votes — 19) and has farmed out voter registration efforts to outside groups, most notably to Scott Presler. To understand why states such as Pennsylvania are likely to flip to Trump, it is essential to grasp the sophisticated ground game now taking place.
Biden “won” in 2020 with 307 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 232. There must be compelling reasons Trump is targeting states previously considered safely Democratic. The table above from the Fabrizio memo of the Trump campaign’s internal polling shows him ahead by considerable margins in 6 of the 7 states listed. These margins are sufficient to overcome all but the most blatant cheating. Not listed are Virginia and New York. Virginia and Georgia (currently Trump +13%) both have Republican governors. The 2020 census resulted in changes to the states’ Electoral College vote allotments. If the 6 landslide states in the Fabrizio table go for Trump, along with Michigan which is already leaning toward Trump, and every state he won in 2020 remains in his column, he wins with 313. Add in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey, and he could go as high as 368.
