Countdown to May 7
Trump is rapidly and exponentially tightening the screws on Iran. 80 years of Middle Eastern turmoil are concluding.
A notable deficit of democracies is their short-term focus. Politicians are forced to pander to the public’s ever-shifting whims. Our founders knew this and crafted a republic in an attempt to insulate against democracy's worst abuses. Inevitably, as occurs in every civilization, this failed, culminating in the hell of a late-stage democracy as we experienced under Biden. We thus find ourselves burdened with a debt which can never be repaid, thanks to over a century of uninhibited “democracy” (i.e., fiat money creation). Democracies excel at kicking problems down the road to an imaginary future. As Mark Twain observed, “Never put off until tomorrow what you can put off until the day after tomorrow.” This is the standard by which democracies operate. Obama’s Iran deal was a classic in this regard. It didn’t stop Iran from acquiring nukes, it merely bribed them into temporarily pausing their ambitions.
Trump, our first emperor, walks a tightrope between positioning America for long-term success while placating the public’s vacillating moods to allow his party to remain in power. Prior to Trump our leaders have kicked the can down the road regarding wayward members of the nuclear club and those aspirants to that club. During his first administration he made short work of the North Korean issue, considered to be the leading foreign policy problem when he was inaugurated.
As will become clear from the timeline explored below, Israel, residing in a rough neighborhood, has not had the liberty of kicking nuclear cans into the future. It has been forced to do the civilized world great favors by physically intervening to end Iraqi and Syrian nuclear aspirations, while substantially interfering with Iran’s efforts. Keep in mind that Arab states have vowed to pursue their own nuclear programs if Iran ever succeeds in completing theirs.
THE COUNTDOWN
Trump is progressing along a deliberate sequence toward elimination of Iran's nuclear threat. On or about March 7 he gave Iran two months to reach a deal. Future historians will be dissecting his strategy long after we are gone. This essay is overly long, for good reason. Trump is establishing the template for imperial administration that his successors will follow for centuries. He’s taking the Art of the Deal on the road to the global arena.
Trump used one sequence of steps to bring North and South Korea together at the negotiating table. He’s applying an entirely different strategy with Iran. Trump is using the Good Cop/Bad Cop routine and passive/aggressive (and aggressive/passive) feints, coupled with continuous airstrikes against Iran’s Houthi proxy to communicate an unmistakable point. Everyone has their assigned roles. Witkoff plays a good cop; Netanyahu acts as a bad cop (publicly needing to be periodically restrained by Trump from attacking Iran); Trump keeps opponents guessing by being mercurial. He simultaneously bombs Yemen back to the Stone Age while enticing the Iranians with how wonderful things could be if they come around. For their part, the Iranians are pretending to put on a strong public face for consumption by their restive populace, while signaling a willingness to bargain, i.e., to stall.
Just because the press hasn’t reported on the hammering the Houthis endured doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.
Assessing the toll of the …U.S. airstrike campaign has been difficult because the military hasn’t released information about the attacks, including what was targeted and how many people were killed. The Houthis, meanwhile, strictly control access to attacked areas and don’t publish complete information on the strikes, many of which likely have targeted military and security sites. [And many of which target the homes of Houthi leaders.]
Both sides have reasons to practice ambiguity. Trump does not need to feed isolationist critics with reports of Houthi death tolls or the rising cost of this operation. The Houthis have no desire to broadcast the full extent of the damage they are absorbing. Their news agency provides a day-by-day account of the airstrikes. For example, one daily entry reads:
On this day, May 6, the US-Saudi-Emirati aggression and its mercenaries committed horrific crimes, killing and wounding dozens, including children and women, as a result of targeting civilian homes and infrastructure in several governorates.
Later that same day the Houthis threw in the towel and Trump agreed to cease the bombing. For what it’s worth, if you want to believe the NY Times:
In closed briefings in recent days, Pentagon officials have acknowledged that there has been only limited success in destroying the Houthis’ vast, largely underground arsenal of missiles, drones and launchers, according to congressional aides and allies.
The officials briefed on confidential damage assessments say the bombing is consistently heavier than strikes conducted by the Biden administration, and much bigger than what the Defense Department has publicly described.
But Houthi fighters, known for their resiliency, have reinforced many of their bunkers and other targeted sites, frustrating the Americans’ ability to disrupt the militia’s missile attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea, according to three congressional and allied officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
TRUMP IS A CONVINCING MADMAN
Too many take Trump literally. Consider former Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley, who thought that Trump was such a madman that he promised his Chinese counterpart he would provide warning if Trump was ready to attack China. Seriously? How could Milley be so stupid? Or treasonous? Trump wants opponents to think he’s mad and impetuous, when he is actually a highly stable genius. Although he doesn’t let on to this in his carefully crafted public persona, he originally began as a public intellectual. Watch videos of him 40 years ago when testifying to Congress or on Oprah. His epitaph should read: “There was a method to his madness.” The Trump we see today is a deliberately contrived image by a master actor.
Lurking in the background are Iran’s Russian and Chinese allies. Iran is their proxy and customer. Any Iranian deal with the U.S. weakens them. Trump is putting on his good cop hat with Russia while seeking to end the Ukrainian conflict and drive a wedge between it and China; while simultaneously pulling the rug out from under the Chinese economy with tariffs. It’s a very safe bet that Ukraine war negotiations with Putin include incentives to get him to move away from Iran (and China). Hobbling Iran is but one facet of a campaign to weaken its ally China.
THE NEO-ISOLATIONISTS HAVE THE SADS
For the Tucker Carlsons in a panic over displays of American military power, several basic questions must be asked and answered.
What would be the consequences of allowing Iran, with its advanced ballistic missile technology, to join the nuclear club?
How long would it take a nation dedicated to America’s destruction to threaten us once it acquires nukes?
Didn’t Biden's Afghanistan fiasco illustrate what quickly happens when America signals weakness? Evil global actors are perpetually alert to power vacuums.
Did Iran unleash their Hamas, Hez b’Allah, and Houthi proxies in a coordinated attack on Israel as the first step of its goal of destroying the Little Satan before going after the Big Satan?
Was Iran too afraid to confront Israel directly, rather than through its proxies?
Does the Iranian regime lie when it insists its objective is to first destroy Israel and then the U.S.?
If Biden accomplished one thing, it was clarifying the consequences of signaling American weakness: domestic and global chaos. In retrospect, Iran jumped the gun after Biden’s Abbey Gate fiasco. Its assumptions regarding Israeli strength and American weakness proved disastrous. Being cowardly, it used its proxies to attempt to topple Israel, rather than attempting to do so directly. It wanted its proxies to absorb the blowback, rather than Iran. It never factored in the possibility of a second Trump administration.
Carlson is terrified that an attack on Iran “will almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths at bases throughout the Middle East.” Wrong. When in the timeline documented below, was there blowback for preemptive strikes against Middle Eastern nuclear facilities and their scientists? If Carlson believes a quick, one-time strike inevitably leads to a protracted war with American troops on the ground, this is beyond absurd. He holds a dangerous, head-in-the-sand mindset that any American use of force is bad. In his world, good is defined as withdrawing within our borders and praying that the cruel world won’t find its way to our doorstep. Ask the Houthis if Trump is shy about using our military.
Too many on the right are recently of a similar neo-isolationist mindset, the so-called woke right. Andrew Napolitano runs a daily online salon for the isolationists to belittle Trump’s acumen and despise Israel. They, along with Carlson, Douglas Macgregor, Jeffrey Sachs, et al., all share an intense antipathy toward Israel. They all also preach America’s decline, our best days are over. They fancy themselves foreign policy experts and Trump to be a dunce. Consider this recent interchange:
Napolitano: Does Iran pose the remotest threat to the national security of the United States of America?
Macgregor: No, and it has never posed a direct threat to us. Unfortunately we've had every think tank in Washington that has been ultimately taken over and run by Zionists and they have been promoting this notion for the last couple of decades, probably longer, that all evil and trouble in the Middle East begins with Iran, simply because Iran has been in the forefront of resisting the Israelis. And anyone who resists the Israelis and what they want to do is the enemy and has to be destroyed, therefore it has to be demonized as much as possible. …Iran has bent over backwards to try and find some way to reconcile with us for the last 20 plus years. …Think about it: just as the Russian possession of a nuclear weapon is a restraint on our use of a nuclear weapon, wouldn't an Iranian possession of a nuclear weapon bring stability to the Middle East and force restraint on the part of Israel?
Don’t try to understand the isolationists’ mindset, it’s upside down and therefore futile to attempt to make sense of. Macgregor actually thinks it would be good if Iran went nuclear. These folks believe Israel is the neighborhood bully. Not even Obama went that far. What about when Iran held Americans hostage for 444 days under Carter, blew up 241 Marines under Reagan, or engineered the killing of hundreds of our troops in Iraq? What about when Iran unleashed their Hamas puppets to rape, torture, and slaughter Israelis and over 40 Americans on October 7? Or murdered an additional four Americans after they were taken hostage? It’s not complicated. Iran poses the greatest threat to Americans and global peace. Macgregor and his pals are so far removed from reality that it would be a relief if it turns out they are on the Iranian payroll, rather than believing such nonsense.
Notice where the domestic opposition to Trump’s Iranian initiative is coming from. Leftists are largely silent, unless you want to count those members of Napolitano's clubhouse such as Jeffrey Sachs or Max Blumenthal.
Trump killed several hundred Russian mercenaries in Syria during his first administration, demonstrating to anybody paying attention that he was not someone to be screwed with. Ditto with killing Soleimani. With a small number of deaths he likely saved millions. Conversely, with his Abbey Gate disaster, Biden is ultimately responsible for the carnage in Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and Yemen. Projecting strength gains respect from our enemies and contributes to peace. Obama/Biden weakness sent the opposite message. Iran is staggering from the elimination of the leadership of its Hamas and Hez b’Allah proxies, and its Houthi puppets are feeling Trump’s wrath. Its economy is a mess. Its populace is restive. These are the conditions which lead to peace.
America is now the largest empire the world has known. The only way to maintain peace across any empire is to use the same strategy used by Rome and every other empire scattered across the pages of history: make an example of anybody who acts out of line. It’s the broken windows policy applied internationally. Allowing little transgressions to go unpunished inevitably yields chaos.
Perhaps Biden’s greatest accomplishment was, tragically, allowing Iran the opportunity to show its true colors. By unleashing its Hamas, Hez b’Allah, and Houthi proxies it showed that it supports terror in all its forms, including rape, murder, hostage taking, and torture. And that its domestic American flunkies, long funded and indoctrinated by Iran and its Muslim Brotherhood pals, will riot on cue and create chaos inside our homeland. Anyone still unconvinced Iran would do the same to us as what occurred on October 7 has not been paying attention.
Let’s examine a condensed version of the relevant timeline regarding elimination of developing nuclear threats, beginning with the history of neutralizing Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs, followed by the timeline of efforts to address Iranian nuclearization.
April 6, 1979: Mossad sabotaged a French nuclear reactor awaiting shipment to Iraq.
June 14, 1980: Mossad assassinated an Egyptian nuclear scientist who headed the Iraqi nuclear program, in his Paris hotel.
June 7, 1981: Israeli bombers, guided by Iranian-supplied reconnaissance photos, destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor purchased from France.
March 22, 1990: Canadian Gerald Bull, an engineer and expert in long-range artillery who had assisted Iran, China, and Iraq, was assassinated in Brussels by unknown actors. He was finishing completion of a supergun for Saddam Hussein, with a 150-meter long barrel, and a bore of one meter, that could fire shells 5,000 miles or launch satellites into orbit.
January/February 1991: Gulf War American attacks finished destroying the Iraqi nuclear site under Bush 41.
September 6, 2007: Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Syrian nuclear site, killing 10 North Korean scientists. The Syrian nuclear program was funded by Iraq and North Korea.
2010: The Stuxnet virus, a joint American/Israeli digital weapon, caused centrifuges at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility to self-destruct during Obama’s administration.
2010-2020: Mossad assassinated seven Iranian nuclear scientists.
January 3, 2020: Iranian general Soleimani is eliminated by Trump in Baghdad.
Some of the key data points in the current operation to deny Iran’s nuclear appetite:
July 31, 2024: Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in his Tehran Hotel. While leading mourners for his funeral, Your Favorite Ayatollah kept nervously looking skyward.
October 2024: Israeli sorties eliminate most of Iran’s anti-aircraft capability.
November 14, 2024: Shortly after Trump’s reelection, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited Iran to look busy on behalf of Europe. According to his resume, “Mr Grossi is an International Gender Champion, promoting gender balance in the nuclear field” (i.e., a complete wimp). Is there something in the water in Brussels that emasculates these people?
February 26, 2025: The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report on the alarming increase in Iranian uranium enrichment activities.
March 7: Trump sent a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, through the UAE, setting a two-month deadline for them to halt their nuclear program. Steve Witkoff delivered the letter to the president of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed Bin Zayed, then Bin Zayed’s diplomat relayed the letter to Tehran.
March 14: Iranian officials huddled with their Chinese and Russian counterparts in Beijing to discuss the issue.
March 15: A concerted series of increased attacks on Iran's Houthi proxies begins, taking out their “top missile guy” in the first hours. What went unnoticed from the Signalgate affair was CIA Director Ratcliffe's comment that if the attack was delayed, more time could be devoted to better target the Houthi leadership. That comment certainly didn’t go unnoticed in Yemen. Especially by the warlord Abdul-Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi. He may be living on borrowed time. We can assume that like his Iranian patrons, he constantly moves between safehouses. The more Iran stalls in negotiations, the more Houthi leaders may start dropping like flies if Trump resumes Houthi airstrikes.
March 17: Trump warns: "Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!"
March 26: Iran responds through Oman to Trump’s letter. They refuse to negotiate directly with the United States. A regime official declared that Iran “is ready for indirect negotiations with the United States in order to evaluate the other party, state its own conditions and make the appropriate decision. . . . Our policy is still to not engage in direct negotiations while under maximum pressure and military threats, however, as it was the case in the past, indirect negotiations can continue." Khamenei commented, “Some bully governments insist on negotiations. But their negotiations are not aimed at solving issues, but to dominate and impose their own expectations. For them, negotiation is a means to introduce new demands. The issue is not just about nuclear matters, they raise new expectations that Iran will certainly not accept.”
March 27: Reports of B2 stealth bombers and C-35 transports being transferred to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean where attacks can be launched on Yemen and/or Iran.
April 2: Trump removes the $800 minimum exemption from import duties China has long enjoyed. If this continues, China’s economy is toast. The tariffs are partially intended to push its economy off a cliff. Trump is clearly coordinating tariffs and pressure on Iran to maneuver China into assisting in bringing Iran to the table.
April 7: Sitting beside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the White House, Trump reveals direct talks with Iran have begun, less than two weeks after Iran said they would not bargain directly. Iran appears to be more interested in saving face, at home and abroad, as its corrupt theocrats cling to power. Its economic condition continuously degrades. Trump will likely craft a way for them to save face while obtaining everything he seeks.
April 9: Trump’s executive order expediting military sales to our allies, while not specifically confined to Israel, was to remove red tape from our ability to quickly arm our partners.
April 10: Trump casually mentions “We have weaponry that nobody has any idea what it is and it’s the most powerful weapons in the world.” Perhaps referring to the B61-13.
April 11: The Houthis cry uncle and broach a truce.
April 12: “Indirect” talks begin in Oman between Witkoff and an Iranian representative. Many consider Witkoff a gullible fool, out of his league on the world stage. Which he may or may not be. But how about Trump uses him to play the good cop to Trump’s bad cop? During his first administration Trump effectively used John Bolton (playing the bad cop) to advantage in negotiations with foreign opponents. Bolton was used to make Trump look reasonable, a reminder of what could happen if the president wasn’t placated. Witkoff has no need to put on heavy gloves when Houthis are being decimated and two carrier battle groups have been parked in the Indian Ocean, along with 30% of our stealth bombers. It’s beyond absurd to paint Witkoff as a fool while the president is busy perpetrating a war against the Houthis and preparing to obliterate Iran, if necessary. Witkoff serves to remind his interlocutors they can choose the easy way or the hard one. Trump lurks in the background with the world’s strongest military. Meanwhile, Trump is bombing Yemen back to the Stone Age.
April 14: Michael Kratsios, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy made newsworthy comments during a speech delivered, in his words, “in the early light of the new Golden Age of America.” Which will turn out to be a profoundly accurate historical statement. The entire speech is worth reading for its prescience of what lies ahead. According to Kratsios, “Our technologies permit us to manipulate time and space. They leave distance annihilated, cause things to grow, and improve productivity.” Almost everyone missed his point. They thought he was talking about secret weapons programs, UFO stuff. Many assumed his comments might have been part of the strategy to intimidate Iran. They had nothing to do with Iran. He was hired by Trump to reverse the decline in American technological prominence. Kratsios was obviously referring to quantum entanglement, what Einstein described as “spooky action at a distance,” the phenomenon underlying quantum computing. Quantum entanglement indeed annihilates distance. This has been known for almost a century. It also essentially “manipulate[s] time” by occurring instantaneously across vast distances, faster than the speed of light. China has had quantum satellites in orbit since 2016 to provide them encrypted communications abilities.
April 17: A principal Houthi oil port is destroyed.
April 17: The U.S. delivered nine planeloads of bunker-busting bombs and other arms to Israel.
April 17: Trump played the Good Cop when responding to a question regarding reports he waved off Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear sites: "I wouldn't say waved off. I'm not in a rush to do it because I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death, and I'd like to see that. That's my first option. If there's a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran, and I think Iran is wanting to talk. I hope they're wanting to talk. It's going to be very good for them if they do. And I'd like to see Iran thrive in the future, do fantastically well. I know the Iranian people, they're incredible people, always have been, very smart, very energetic, very successful people. And I don't want to do anything that's going to hurt anybody. I really don't.”
April 18: Trump continues going from aggressive to passive: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.” He reiterated his determination to deny Iran nuclear weapons, and stated the obvious: “Your life would be in great danger” if Iran succeeded.
April 19: Witkoff met in Rome with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
April 19: Reuters reported that Israel (playing the Bad Cop) is considering going it alone with a limited airstrike combined with covert activity.
April 22: Trump was reported to have scheduled a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Al-Thani. (See below for why this is a consequential development, about to take place shortly during Trump’s upcoming Middle East tour.)
April 22: An independent assessment concluded that “between 500 and 600 Houthi fighters have been killed — many of them high-ranking figures, including missile system operators and drone experts. …Multiple Houthi training camps have been decimated by US strikes, with no survivors among the fighters.” “Houthis have been pressuring families of slain fighters to remain silent while only acknowledging the deaths of lower-ranking members to avoid sparking panic among their support base. In several cases, when local residents post information online about those killed, the group quickly launches disinformation campaigns across social media. …Sheikh Jamal al-Maamari, previously held captive by the Houthis, published a list of names, ranks, and locations of those he said were killed.”
It’s obvious that Trump’s longer-term objective is to support Yemen’s internal resistance to the Houthis and ultimately drive them from power. Realize that the Houthis are an insurgency which only controls part of Yemen. “Yemen’s legitimate Information Minister, Moammar Al-Eryani, “praised the Trump administration’s handling of the crisis as a ‘strategic shift in addressing this issue.’ Al-Eryani [said] that the operations have been precise and have targeted ‘significant elements of Houthi military infrastructure, including command and control centers, training camps, weapons depots, and communication facilities used to coordinate their attacks.’”April 26: Massive explosions took out Iran’s leading port, significantly impacting its ability to export arms to the Houthis or oil to China. 28 dead and over 800 wounded. The blasts were reportedly caused by ignition of solid fuel stores for Iranian missiles that had been imported from China.
May 3: Iranians go full Zelensky and pass on the scheduled meeting for that date.
May 4: After a Houthi missile attack on Israel, Netanyahu vowed: “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
May 4: Iran warned that if attacked, American bases in the region would be targeted. Fat chance.
May 5: Britain complained it was being left out of the Iranian negotiations. Boo hoo.
May 5: A day after the Houthi missile attack, Netanyahu responded and Israeli airstrikes took out a Yemeni Red Sea port used to supply them with Iranian weapons.
May 6: Israel completely destroyed the airport in the Yemeni capital, along with the cement plant used for creating underground tunnels, and two power plants. The net of isolation surrounding Iran is tightening.
May 6: Putin called the Iranian president to express support for a “fair” and lawful nuclear deal between Iran and the United States. He volunteered to assist the negotiations. He likely did this as part of a quid pro quo with Trump regarding Ukraine. What carrots might be offered to Iran (either directly from the U.S., or via Russia) are unknown.
May 6: Trump halts attacks on the Houthis after they cry uncle and agree to stop attacking shipping. The beauty of halting attacks prior to the negotiation deadline is that if Iran becomes uncooperative during negotiations, attacks can be resumed to apply pressure. For now, they have made their point.
May 6: Trump teased an extremely important announcement he would make later in the week. It almost surely will relate to a diplomatic subject, likely involving the Middle East.
May 11: Talks between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to take place in Oman, while U.S./China trade talks are underway in Switzerland. Is it coincidence that the two most consequential negotiations of Trump’s second term are occurring simultaneously, or are the two related?
May 12: Trump is scheduled to arrive in Saudi Arabia to begin a series of meetings with Arab leaders across the region. It’s likely not only America and Israel lining up to attack Iran if negotiations fail. A coalition is taking shape, similar to what Bush 41 assembled prior to the Gulf War— albeit a far smaller coalition. Notably absent this time are the Europeans, who are busy doing what they do best: fighting among themselves. The era of half measures is over as the Pax Americana assumes its final form.
The items above are all superficial, observable facts. CIA and Mossad machinations are undoubtedly underway inside Iran (and Yemen) but are unknown, potentially forever. The Saudis and other regional Sunni powers are also invested in neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat. Regime change in Iran is the ultimate (and inevitable) objective. It can be assumed that active covert measures, (by America, Israel, Saudi Arabia, et al.) are underway to expedite this inevitability.
Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, and Osama bin Laden all shared the same fate after running afoul of the American juggernaut. But this cuts both ways. Thousands of jihadist terrorists are reportedly positioned within our borders. They could bring the nation down in a blizzard of coordinated infrastructure attacks. But they haven't. Iran is nothing more than any other bully — a coward at heart. Two can play that game. Trump has made it clear he has “left instructions” that if he’s assassinated Iran will be obliterated.
All parties to this global game of chicken seek a peaceful resolution. Which means one will be achieved. The question is how we get there, and how much military muscle must be applied before that conclusion is reached. Iran's Hamas and Hez b’Allah proxies have seen their leadership decimated. Gaza lies in ruins; its inhabitants are turning on Hamas. Iran’s ally Assad has decamped to Moscow. The Houthis are in trouble. China’s and Iran's economies are on the rocks. Most of this litany occurred by default on Biden's watch. Now that Trump has returned an active pressure campaign has commenced to reach a conclusion that is inevitable. Iran is in checkmate.
Iran’s billionaire ayatollahs don't harbor dreams of martyrdom. That's for public consumption. It's only a matter of time before their repressed masses overthrow them. It's far better for them to appease Trump than if the CIA/Mossad engineers a coup. Their dilemma is that by forfeiting nuclear ambitions means they lose face with their domestic population which is anxious to revolt. The writing is on the wall for Iran's leadership. Only extreme repression allows them to retain power.
WHAT TRUMP SEEKS
It has not been widely reported what Trump’s letter demanded, beyond threatening a military strike if his demands weren’t met within two months. He not only demanded an ending of nuclear enrichment and full dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program, but that support for Hez b’Allah, Hamas and the Houthis (and terrorism in general) must cease. This is a big one for Iran. It would mean the end of everything they have supported since taking Americans hostage in 1979 and murdering 241 U.S. Marines in Lebanon in 1983, the Marines’ deadliest day since Iwo Jima. Trump also demanded disbanding Hashd-al-Shabi PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces) groups operating inside Iraq to sow chaos.
Trump is tightening the vise on Iran by whacking their Houthi proxy and simultaneously wielding tariffs and import duties against their Chinese allies. Iran’s best option is to negotiate for the least restrictive terms. Which means halting their nuclear program but not destroying their existing work. Trump seeks total dismantlement, ending the can kicking forever. Trump's predecessors placed makeup on the problem by allowing such things as continued uranium enrichment, something only useful for making weapons. Unless the centrifuges are destroyed, and the enriched uranium is relinquished, what's the point?
We’ve seen this movie before with the stalemate over Saddam Hussein’s nuclear ambitions. In that instance an inspection regime was implemented. Trump won't agree to any resolution relying on the corrupt UN and International Atomic Energy Commission. In Saddam's case he wound up looting billions in the oil for food scam overseen by UN hacks.
As Trump’s deadline approaches Iran’s leadership is probably more concerned with face-saving efforts than anything else. Taking a page from Trump’s playbook, they are yakking about all the money American firms could earn in Iran by helping them build numerous nuclear reactors for peaceful energy production. Sure. Their audience is their restive population. Showing signs of weakness would encourage an uprising. Again, don’t fail to factor in that various intelligence agencies, including American, Israeli, and Saudi, may be busy on the ground in Iran fomenting a revolt. Trump promised Hamas that “all hell is going to break out" if all the hostages were not released by his February 15 deadline. A Trump deadline should never be taken literally, it represents a starting point for triggering negotiations. Hamas proceeded to play games and it was not until March 18, after a two-month ceasefire, that Israel resumed attacks, after Trump abandoned seeking further progress. He will not continue negotiating indefinitely.
Iran will do everything possible to delay a final resolution. Iran is stealing Zelensky’s act by stalling. In the end it won’t work. The more they stall, the greater the pounding the Houthis will likely experience in response. The problem Trump faces is that thanks to Biden’s weapons drawdown in Ukraine, a finite amount of hardware remains to drop on Yemen. At some point it may become more practical to drop the bunker busters (which otherwise have a very limited use) on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities than to continue drawing down our stock of more conventional weapons. Cruise missiles are another story. They have a finite shelf life. Use them or lose them. It’s been a while since America fired off barrages of them from offshore vessels. That may change in coming weeks or months.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Qatar is the principal banker of Islamic terrorism. Witkoff has been criticized for having done business with Qatar and describing that nation’s leaders as swell guys. Maybe that’s why Trump selected Witkoff. Any lasting solution to the Islamic terrorism problem must include convincing Qatar to cease its financial support. Don’t underestimate the central role this must play and the administration’s quiet efforts to resolve this problem. The billionaires who lead Hamas reside in luxury in Qatar. Trump seeks to relocate the Gazan population to surrounding states, none of whom are anxious to accept them. It would be no surprise if Qatar is pressured, either to supply funds to these nations to sweeten the deal or to confiscate the Hamas billionaires’ money to do so. The Hamas leadership serves no purpose other than to continue sowing chaos. Depriving them of their money makes them irrelevant. If Mexico can be made to pay for the wall, the Hamas leadership should be made to pay for their citizens’ relocation.
Meanwhile, at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (liberals/globalists talking to themselves), Representative Thomas Massie is confused about why Trump is bombing the snot out of the Houthis. It’s not complicated. Depriving Iran of nuclear weapons is the most important thing any president can do for our nation’s long-term security. Roughing up the Houthis avoids a direct conflict with their Iranian sponsors. Reflexive isolationists pose a grave danger to our safety. The libertarians were all for open borders before the Obama and Biden administrations illustrated why that fantasy won’t work any more than the Obama/Biden make nice policies for dealing with Iran would stop its nuclear pursuits. Kicking the can down the road ended with Trump’s inauguration. Just as Trump made short work of ISIS, he’s reprising that success with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It’s the 1930’s all over again, except this time Trump is determined that the current axis allied against us goes no further. Many in the Middle East — Arabs and Jews — were relieved when Trump was reelected, knowing that help was on the way against the regional bully.
The negative influence of Koch Industries, Inc. money must be included in this analysis, reprising the 1930s. Daddy Koch made his fortune assisting Stalin and the Nazis to industrialize. Hiding behind a libertarian curtain, his progeny have made the world safe for Koch Industries, Inc. profits. Much of the current Trump administration turmoil is thanks to allowing Koch network acolytes to infiltrate positions of authority, in spite of Trump’s instructions to keep them out. The Quincy Institute represents a fusion between Soros and Koch money. Is it a surprise that globalist forces on the left and right joined together to stalk the world for profits? Koch alumni include such winners as Mike Pence and Nikki Haley. The Koch network was determined to block Trump’s nomination in 2024 and backed Haley. Laura Loomer has been at the forefront of highlighting Koch network subterfuge again in the current Trump national security establishment. Koch forces were also instrumental in getting Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court, an appointment which has proved a major error.
Charles Koch has plenty of problems with Trump, including tariffs, which his affiliates have gone to court in an effort to block. Free trade isn’t fair trade for American workers or our industrial base. Allowing wholesale immigration doesn’t help our workers either. Globalist oligarchs trading with China and everyone else seek maximum profits, regardless of how this eventually weakens the overall American economy, and therefore our security, which ultimately depends on our economic strength. Guess who the GOP senators were who joined Democrats in voting to oppose Trump’s tariffs: Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul.
THE ARAB LEAGUE VS. IRAN
Founded in 1945, the Arab League now has 22 members joined together to foster regional security and economic prosperity. Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, Iran has attempted to undermine it, especially in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and “Palestine” (Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank). During the Soviet era the league was largely aligned with the USSR and hostile toward Israel. Egypt was briefly suspended from the league for signing a peace treaty with Israel. Today, thanks to Iranian aggression, Egypt and the rest of the Arab League are rapidly moving into the American orbit. Which signifies the final assimilation of Israel into that neighborhood and the end of eight decades of warfare.
It’s only a matter of time, probably sooner than later, that additional signatories are added to the Abraham Accords and that region moves to the back burner of American foreign policy problems. Trump has proposed that America, China, and Russia all slash their defense budgets in half. All three can no longer afford the status quo in the continued difficult economic environment. Steve Bannon points out that one way the U.S. can meet that objective is by the Trump Doctrine of placing our MIddle Eastern regional allies in charge of local policing, withdrawing our troops from Europe, and consolidating our attention to our own hemisphere. He also notes that blocking Iran’s oil exports to China with a naval blockade could become part of the pressure applied to reach an agreement. 80 years after the end of WWII it borders on ridiculous that we still have troops stationed in Europe, or that the Korean war still doesn’t have a peace treaty.
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT IRAN
China, Russia, and Qatar are Iranian patrons. The quiet part of Trump’s diplomacy involves manipulating these three into bringing Iran to the table. Putin wants out of the Ukraine war which has been economically and militarily ruinous for his nation. China’s economy was toast even before Trump’s tariffs. Qatar wants investments. Eric Trump just signed a Trump Organization development deal in Qatar.
We have little idea what sorts of carrots and sticks Trump is using with these nations to get them to assist his objectives with Iran, but we can be certain this is ongoing. What we are seeing in the first months of the current administration is a grand bargain simultaneously addressing the Ukraine war, China trade, and Iranian (and Qatari) subsidizing of terrorism. This is a key part of Trump’s long-term, strategic focus on positioning America to prevail and prosper for many decades into the future.
Proxy wars are nothing new. France used the American revolution as a means of weakening Britain. More recently, proxy wars have been ongoing among nuclear powers since the nuclear era began, avoiding direct conflicts. Korea and Vietnam marked the first instances of Russia/China and the U.S. directly and indirectly battling. The Cuban missile crisis, Sandinistas, our arming Afghanistan against its Russian aggressors, Soviet support of Arab enemies of Israel, the union between the Muslim Brotherhood and Russia/China, etc., etc. have all involved these three superpowers jostling for position via proxies. We can not omit Russian, Chinese, Iranian, etc. funding of domestic American proxies. For example, the ideological rot in our universities did not occur organically. It was cultivated and fertilized with foreign funding for decades.
As first Russia, now China, begin down the inevitable downslope of command economies (a downslope leading to economic paralysis) they have been forced to adopt modified versions of communism in futile efforts to postpone the inevitable contradictions making that system unsustainable. It was historically untenable for three superpowers to coexist. One had to become dominant. Western (now American) civilization had to go through its adolescence, its period of contending states which saw its various nations battle for supremacy among themselves. These intervals last a couple of centuries in each civilization. Ours began with the Napoleonic wars when Europe began its self-destruction and concluded with a failed effort to conquer Russia. This was followed by two world wars and a Cold War. As this insanity finally and inevitably concludes (ironically, with another failed French (and allied) effort to attack Russia), we are witnessing the start of the inevitable peaceful two centuries which follow that period. France’s current leaders have learned nothing since Napoleon caused so much chaos. Nobody is lining up to move into Russia or China. They are doomed. Including demographically. The remainder of this century will see both witness significant depopulation.
IMPERIAL ADMINISTRATION
As the first fully global civilization, America begins dealing with the details of imperial administration confronting all civilizations at this stage. First, the lead nation must establish a sound economic foundation. Second, member nations must either remit taxes into the core to cover the costs of administration, or assume some of those costs themselves. Or both. For example, don’t be surprised if the Saudis and Qataris end up covering the costs of relocating the Gazans. This cost-sharing calculus has always been so. Whether we call these taxes tribute or tariffs, their purpose is the same: allowing the lead nation to remain economically viable by sharing the costs of imperial administration, including policing wayward states. America assumed the mantle of leadership after WWII when it subsidized the rebuilding and defense of Europe and Japan, hoping to prevent Germany and Japan from reigniting. That economic relationship has proven unsustainable, only massive debt enabled its continuation. Now a restructuring brings a sustainable balance into existence. Why, 80 years later, did (until this year) Europe still get to tack tariffs on American goods but we allowed their exports into our country tariff free? Congressional corruption tops the list of why this was allowed to endure.
Strange things happen along the way to empire. Take Vietnam. Once our enemy, now our economic partner against their competitor China. Or Britain (and Europe in general). Once our enemy, sometimes our friend. Is the Ukraine war a proxy battle between America and Russia, or is it really a conflict sponsored by European/American globalists — using Russia as an excuse — to loot the American populace? If it sometimes seems as if Trump has more in common with Putin than with his domestic opponents, is it because both face common enemies? Putin is no sweetheart, but neither is the WEF/Soros crew which confronts both him and Trump. We reside in an era of contradictions, more so than normal.
The real battle, at this stage in the evolution of all civilizations, is the internal American one between the rest of us and the globalist oligarchs who amassed wealth and power over many decades at the expense of the populace. Because America has assembled the first global civilization, those domestic oligarchic forces have united with their international peers. Zuckerberg, Bezos, Gates, etc. have more in common with their Chinese counterparts than with American workers. They have no problem with using Chinese slave labor to make a buck. Or screwing their countrymen by working with the world’s most evil actors. The war lobby harvested trillions using our troops as cannon fodder.
CAUTION
As the Iran negotiations enter their final phase, the possibility of disruption to financial markets is high. Our economy is already in a fragile state and financial markets are in a hyperreactive posture. Trump’s foreign and domestic opponents may attempt to drive down markets in an attempt to derail him. Even without assistance, markets may collapse on their own if the Iranian situation heats up. Conversely, a prompt resolution of the Iranian and tariff issues could unleash irrational exuberance.
DOMESTIC POLITICAL FALLOUT
Americans are not opposed to war. They are opposed to “artificial” wars which serve only to enrich oligarchs. Such as Ukraine, which was instigated over many years by a coalition of neocons and the Clinton/Obama/Biden crew. Trump is entirely accurate when declaring it would never have occurred on his watch. He would not have allowed Russia to be provoked by encroaching on its borders. As the dean of leftists, Noam Chomsky, has observed, the reason we can be certain that Russia was provoked into attacking was because the media incessantly described his attack as unprovoked.
Americans are also opposed to wars with no exit strategy that endure for long years. Other than the isolationist nuts on the fringes of the right and left, the sole domestic opposition to Trump’s Middle Eastern overtures is coming from the Muslim Brotherhood lobby. He had zero opposition to his opening to North Korea in the initial months of his first administration. Trump is going to quickly prevail over Iran one way or the other, either through diplomacy or force.
Wars which result in a fast and overwhelming victory for America (Reagan’s Grenada invasion or Bush 41’s Desert Storm) prove exceptionally popular. Trump just essentially won a brief war with the Houthis, with assistance from Israel. No other president has won a war a mere 106 days into his term. Under Biden attacks on the Houthis had been percolating, but beginning on March 15 Trump unleashed a concerted effort to obtain victory, which was accomplished in 52 days. The Houthis are modern descendants of the Barbary states which began attacking American shipping (and taking prisoners) before the Constitution even went into effect. Jefferson and Madison were forced into building a Navy and sending it into the Mediterranean, “to the shores of Tripoli,” to fight the two Barbary Wars. Trump just fought and won the third and final war in that trilogy, four days shy of 224 years after they began. What everybody (except the Houthi leadership) missed during the Signalgate affair was that CIA Director Ratcliff stated that if the attack on the Houthis was delayed a month it would provide an opportunity to obtain better targeting information on their leaders. How many of them have survived is unknown.
The Barbary Wars represented a struggle between a senescent civilization (the Ottomans, who the Barbary states were aligned with) and an ascendant civilization (the West, now the American civilization). Modern, historically retrograde, efforts by Iran and its Muslim Brotherhood associates (and allies such as China) to restore a caliphate are doomed. As noted above, there is only room for one superpower. Trump gets it and is ensuring which one prevails. EVERYTHING he is doing, domestically and internationally, supports this objective. The stakes don’t get any bigger. Through force of will he is crafting a new world order that is destined to long endure. The post WWI chaos in the Middle East represents fallout from the Ottoman collapse. Trump is finally bringing stability back to that region after over a century of continuous conflict.
If Trump has mastered one thing, it’s identifying where the political center lies. To underscore just how far from the center his domestic opposition regarding Iran (isolationists and the Muslim Brotherhood forces) has strayed, consider the statement below.
Oct. 17, 2024
The killing today of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, by Israeli forces is a major achievement in counterterrorism. Sinwar's death will not heal the wounds of the October 7th atrocities that he plotted, or the many deaths for which he is responsible, but I hope that it may bring some small measure of justice and solace to the families and the loved ones of the many victims of Sinwar's premeditated cruelty.
Sinwar was the architect of the vile terrorist assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 Israelis were murdered and 251 people were taken hostage. Hamas terrorists slaughtered civilians from more than 30 countries—including the United States. Sinwar and Hamas were responsible for the deaths of many Americans over the years, including the more than 40 Americans slain on October 7th and the murdered American hostages Itay Chen, Gad Haggai, Judy Weinstein Haggai, and Hersh Goldberg Polin.
The death of Sinwar affords us all a major opportunity for progress toward the brighter future that both Israelis and Palestinians and the entire region deserve—and that Sinwar deliberately blocked.
Our top and most urgent priority is to secure the release of each and every hostage, including our own American citizens. The hostages should not have to suffer for another hour in the clutches of Hamas and other terrorists. Those who are holding them should release them now.
Sinwar's death also provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza, and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas's oppressive rule.
The United States fully supports Israel's right to defend itself against Hamas and other terrorist groups. …
This statement was issued by Lloyd Austin, Biden’s Defense Secretary. It could just as easily have been made by Stephen Miller, Marco Rubio, or Pete Hegseth. Trump is on the cusp of scoring a big win politically, at the same time his tariffs are gaining political traction.